Outlook 2025: Poland set for a good year as investors return

Poland is looking at the year ahead with renewed optimism after a better-than expected performance in 2024, delegates heard at Real Asset Media’s European Outlook 2025: Focus on CEE, which took place yesterday in Warsaw, hosted by Colliers.

The event in Warsaw yesterday. Left to right: Thomas Kaechele (M&G Real Estate), Dorota Wysokińska-Kuzdra (Colliers Poland), Fabian Haupt (FLE), Richard Betts (Real Asset Media)

“The trend is positive this year, we have already seen more interest from investors and more capital coming in, so there’s liquidity in the market,” said Dorota Wysokińska-Kuzdra, senior partner, head of corporate finance CEE, Colliers. “This week has been crazy, with so many calls from investors showing the level of interest in the Polish market.”

The preliminary numbers for investment volumes in 2024 – €5 billion – show a strong improvement on 2023’s €2 billion. Some deals that were agreed but not finalised last year will be added to the 2025 numbers, so the expectation is that by the year end transaction volumes will be good.

“We are still not at the levels we have seen in the past, but we are moving in the right direction,” she said. Last year there were major transactions in different asset classes, from logistics to offices to retail, showing how diverse the market is.

“We are very positive on Poland and will continue to look for opportunities and invest for the long term,” said Fabian Haupt, senior director real estate & M&A, FLE. “We have diversified our portfolio, from offices to cash and carry to hotels, and we invest in regional cities as well as in Warsaw.”

The recovery of the market is underpinned by improved economic fundamentals, as positive GDP growth returned, inflation fell, the unemployment rate is at all-time lows and the labour market is less overheated and there’s less pressure to increase wages, which is good for employers. Rising consumer confidence following the fall in inflation rates, for example, drove the strong performance of the retail sector.

“More interest rate cuts are likely to happen this year as inflation pressures ease,” said Grzegorz Sielewicz, head of economic and market insights, Colliers Poland. Lower financing costs would be an added incentive to investors to deploy capital in the market.

“Poland has shown that it is resilient and agile, good at adapting to evolving situations,” said Sielewicz. “The weakness of the German economy is a cause for concern for us, but it is no longer the case that when Germany sneezes Poland catches a cold.”

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