Outlook 2026: logistics the most attractive sector in the Netherlands, retail rebounding

Logistics is still the most attractive sector in the Dutch market but retail is rebounding, experts agreed at the recent Netherlands Commercial Real Estate Outlook webinar, which was organised by Bisnow in partnership with Real Asset Media.

“Logistics has been everyone’s darling for a long time, but I think that in 2026 it will become even more attractive”, said Tia van Beek, Managing Director – Asset Management Europe, Principal Real Estate Europe. “Vacancies are low, occupier demand is strong and we are still seeing rental growth. The sector offers a more balanced risk-return profile, which makes logistics the stand-out choice for me.”

Given land scarcity in the Netherlands, the gap between demand and supply continues to widen.

“Logistics is the biggest sector in our portfolio and we still see great opportunities”, said Jan Hein Tiedema, Head of Netherlands, Hines. “We’re investing in multi-let light industrial and we’ve seen a lot of traction.”

Experts agreed that the outlook for the sector is still positive, especially in key locations and in some segments of the market.

“We find it interesting to focus on niches like self-storage or cold storage”, said Pieter Akkerman, Co-Head Real Estate Netherlands, Schroders Capital. “By diversifying we can generate additional returns.”

A flash poll conducted among delegates showed that, asked which sector would provide the best returns in the Netherlands, respondents favoured industrial and data centres, equally placed at 26%, while retail and the living sector had 17% each, followed at some distance by the hotels sector at 10% and offices at 5%.

“Different segments of retail behave in different ways”, said Veronica Gallo-Alvarez, Head of Investment Management, Redevco. “We are cautious about shopping centres because of the level of capex that needs to be invested given the assets’ age, but we favour retail parks. We expect 7-8% returns for the retail sector in general this year, but retail parks are likely to do better than that and be the best performer in the market, next to logistics.”

The lack of new developments or new entries into the market is supporting rental growth, she said, but “it needs a lot of work and expertise to maintain rental levels in the retail sector”. The high street is very polarised now, Gallo-Alvarez added: the luxury segment is recovering and prime assets in the main Dutch cities are successful but secondary assets and locations are not doing well.

The office market is equally polarised, with modern, ESG-compliant assets in key locations with good transport connections doing well and the rest being left behind. The sector has not done well since the pandemic, but experts said that it is becoming interesting again as assets are attractively priced and people are returning to the office.

“I am positive about opportunities in the office sector, but you need to be very selective”, said Tiedema. “There is definitely money to be made but there is also an exit risk, especially with larger assets.”

As sustainability is high up the agenda in the Netherlands, ESG-compliance is a must-have if deals are to be approved by investment committees.

“All our investments have to pass the ESG test and it is quite a high bar”, said John German, Managing Director, Head of Living Investments, Europe, Invesco Real Estate. “Investing in offices now can give you a first mover advantage. We like brown to green strategies and are deploying capital in that space. Office is not a dirty word anymore.”