Savills: strongest H1 new supply volumes for Polish warehouses in history

According to Savills, total stock of modern warehouse and industrial space in Poland rose to 16.8 million sq m, thanks to the record high new supply in the first half of the year. Warsaw maintains its leading position (4.1 million sq m), while Central Poland (2.73 million sq m) overtook Upper Silesia (2.66 million sq m) due to 246,500 sq m delivered to the market in that region in H1. Over 2.2 million sq m of warehouse and industrial space remains under construction across Poland, with Panattoni BTS Gliwice the biggest project (210,000 sq m).

Kamil Szymański, Head of Industrial Agency, Savills Poland, explains:

“In the first half of the year the largest level of new supply was observed in Central Poland, making this region the second most important logistics market in the country, just behind Warsaw (zone I and II). What’s more, in the capital city of Poland as well as in Wroclaw we noticed very strong demand. City logistics is still one of the key trends. At the end of June 2019 there was ca. 52,100 sq m of space under construction located in such schemes and the demand for urban logistics warehouses remains high at ca. 31,000 sq m of net take-up in H1 2019,”

According to Savills, the largest volume of take-up was noted in Warsaw (almost 580,000 sq m), nearly 50% more than the year before. Key lease agreements (ca. 60,000 sq m each) signed in H1 include: Jysk (Logistic City Piotrków Trybunalski), Pantos Logistics (Panattoni Park Wrocław XI) and PepsiCo (P3 Mszczonów).

Poland’s vacancy rate slightly decreased (0.4 pp compared to the first quarter) and at the end of June 2019 stood at 5.1%. The highest rate was observed in Upper Silesia (7.6%) and Poznań (7.5%). Headline rents were stable: EUR 2.7–4.2/sq m/month for big-box warehouses and EUR 5.35/sq m/month for SBUs in Warsaw.

Szymański added:

“The warehouse market is keeping its momentum. Following the record-breaking level of new supply in H1, the whole year may end with the highest volume of new warehouse and industrial space delivered to the market at ca. 2.5 million sq m. Share of leased space in under construction remains relatively high at ca. 60%, ensuring stability of vacancy rate in the future.

“However, some macroeconomic risks appear. Slowdown in the manufacturing sector in Germany could impact industrial production and related sectors in Poland. On the other hand, private consumption is to remain high, among others due to pre-election fiscal stimulus, ensuring demand from retail, e-commerce and 3pl sectors.

“Taking into consideration these risks, a mild decline in total volume of leasing activity at the end of 2019 compared to two previous years is projected. As easing of demand is expected there is no space for rental growth within the next six months.”

[email protected]