Resilience and strong innovation will attract FDI

Maciej Fijałkowski, Secretary of the City of Warsaw - FDI Outlook 2026

What trends, motives or drivers will shape the FDI landscape and investment flows in 2026?

Stability and predictability have a significant impact on investment decisions, which is particularly important today. Energy transition and digital transformation will remain a serious factor for investors, while AI and automation will become more important as key drivers of FDI in 2026. They are already changing what investors look for, shifting the focus from costs to technology readiness and the ability to scale digital operations.

Talent will remain crucial to investment decisions, but even exceptional human capital must be supported by strong digital and physical infrastructure.

These elements will shape which markets can support next‑generation business models and attract the most dynamic investment flows.

Poland’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals will also shape investor decisions, and as Poland’s economic and innovation hub, Warsaw is well‑positioned to benefit from these trends.

What regions and sectors are you bullish about for 2026 and why?

This year, the largest share of FDI will flow into economies that demonstrate resilience and strong innovation capacity. 2026 is expected to be a “transition year” for global FDI – a period between the
old model of globalisation and a new landscape defined by different competitiveness factors and evolving risk dynamics.

The strongest flow will come from markets investing in artificial intelligence, robotics, automation and digitalisation. These technologies are reshaping global value chains, and locations that develop them will attract the most forward‑looking investors. The semiconductor sector will also be one of the most critical strategic priorities, shaping both investment flows and Europe’s technological resilience.

Poland is already emerging as one of Europe’s most dynamic technology environments and Warsaw is the natural leader. The city has the country’s strongest talent pool, top universities and research institutions, and a rapidly expanding tech and startup ecosystem.

In 2026, we see strong potential in the data centre sector. Demand for digital infrastructure is rising sharply due to AI, cloud services and automation – and Poland is becoming a strategic location for these investments.

What keeps you up at night or worries you about FDI in 2026?

What worries most about the FDI landscape in 2026 is the growing tension in the EU-US trade relationship, including issues related to tariffs. This uncertainty directly affects investment flows.

For years, transatlantic cooperation has been one of the key engines driving the entire innovation ecosystem, but the current shift in geopolitical and economic dynamics is forcing both sides to rethink the foundations of that partnership. Consequently, every investment – whether from the US or within the EU – is becoming more valuable, which is reflected in the increasingly proactive engagement of regional investment promotion agencies.

Another concern is that governments are becoming more determined to retain key sectors domestically, especially those tied to strategic technologies and national security. This trend may further reduce companies’ appetite for investing abroad.

Equally, what reasons do you find for optimism?

There are several strong reasons for optimism. Warsaw continues to strengthen its position as Central and Eastern Europe’s leading business services hub.

We’re also seeing growing interest from technology, financial, and healthcare companies, as well as steady expansion from organisations already operating here. Warsaw’s business services sector has grown into one of the most advanced in the region, with many centres handling complex, high‑value processes.

Warsaw’s innovation ecosystem is growing fast and gaining global recognition, powered by creative talent, strong universities, and an active community of startups and researchers.

We expect that the current dynamics in US-EU relations may encourage Europe to reinvest in its own industrial base. Even if this shift doesn’t fully materialise in 2026, it could open the door to more strategic projects in the years that follow.

Any other thoughts you would like to share?

Warsaw’s experience offers an important perspective for investors. Few European capitals have demonstrated such resilience and capacity for transformation.

Today, the city is consistently implementing a long-term (recently being updated) development strategy that strengthens its position as a natural destination for high-value investment.

Maciej Fijałkowski, Secretary of the City of Warsaw

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