Vaccine acceptance dictates timing of real estate’s recovery

The biggest change in the macro-economic picture has been the progress of the vaccination programmes according to Justin Curlow, global head of research and strategy at Axa IM Alts.

“The UK and US were quickest out of the gate, Europe is accelerating and catching up,” Curlow told Real Asset Insight’s Richard Betts. “Ultimately, I think herd immunity is only going to be reached once we not only have those vaccines starting to get administered, but when we have enough of the population willing to be vaccinated,” he said.

Curlow said that will ultimately dictate the timing and ability of economies to reopen and all property sectors to recover.

Anecdotal evidence from the US is encouraging, with travel to Florida and the Caribbean now at pre-covid levels. “It bodes well for what we’re seeing on the continent in Europe,” he added.

Price increases occurring as a result of government support and materials shortages will be transitory and governments seem likely to allow inflation to run a little before intervening.

And, while property sector performances have been divergent, with sectors such as residential and logistics flourishing and retail and hospitality suffering, continued vaccine progress and eventual herd immunity will help real estate markets to align.

Click on the video above to watch the full interview or listen to the podcast below.